Live fuel moisture content and ignition probability in the Iberian Peninsular territory of Spain

Sara Jurdao Knecht, Marta Yebra Álvarez, Aitor Bastarrika, Emilio Chuvieco


This paper presents an operational algorithm to produce Live Fuel Moisture Content (LFMC) at national scale from MODIS data. The algorithm is based on the inversion of Radiative Transfer Models (RTM) that estimate moisture content based on different simulation scenarios. In addition, logistic regression models were calibrated to convert the derived LFMC values into Ignition Probability (IP) maps. The areas under the curve obtained by the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) plot method provided by the models were close to 0.6. Several statistical analyses were performed in order to ascertain whether the variables proposed to be included in the fire danger model were significantly related to forest fires. A non parametric U-Mann-Withney test confirmed significant differences between fire and non-fire pixels (p<0.001). Fire pixels occurred at significantly lower LFMC values than the non-fire pixels.

Palabras clave

Live Fuel Moisture Content, Spain, Radiative Transfer Models, Ignition Probability, MODIS.

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Licencia Creative Commons

Esta obra está bajo una Licencia Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivar 4.0 Internacional.

GeoFocus es la revista del Grupo de Tecnologías de la Información Geográfica de la Asociación de Geógrafos Españoles. Recibe soporte institucional y técnico de RedIRIS (Red Española de I+D soportada por el Gobierno de España), de la FECYT (Fundación Española para la Ciencia y la Tecnología) y Grumets (Grupo de Investigación Métodos y Aplicaciones en Teledetección y Sistemas de Información Geográfica).